12 July 2024
The first direct send: 888 USDC.e.
Car’s Safe funds the oracle wallet at 11:29:12 UTC. The same pair of addresses appears repeatedly in the transfer ledger that follows.
Open the 888-token transfer ↗The September file / 03 / Car
Car’s bets.
The oracle
he funds.
A trading account with money on the outcome. A funded wallet proposing that outcome. Eleven proposals rejected as “Too Early” — every one aligned with Car’s larger position.
121Successful proposal transactions
12Settled with a different answer
43Proposals challenged by a dispute
109Settled as proposed
01 / A direct financial relationship
The money
goes both ways.
Car’s public trading Safe sent 37,966 USDC.e directly to oracle wallet 0x3e8379fa… across 37 transfers. That wallet sent 20,798 USDC.e directly back across 19 transfers. All 56 payment legs match raw Polygon receipt logs.
Public trading accountCar
0x7c3db723f1d4d8cb9c550095203b686cb11e5c6bPolymarket profile ↗37,966 USDC.e →37 transfers to the oracle wallet← 20,798 USDC.e19 transfers back to Car
Oracle proposer0x3e8379fa…0x3e8379fa4e49648d88dc6c885abd776adbdc2132Polygon history ↗03 April 2025
650 sent. A proposal 94 seconds later.
At 00:48:18 UTC, Car sends 650 USDC.e. At 00:49:52, the funded wallet proposes Yes on Russia sanctions. Car holds 4,178.124659 Yes shares at the preceding block. The oracle verdict is Too Early.
Open the full sequence ↗Inspect all 56 direct transfers
| UTC | Direction | Amount | Receipt |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 22:26:07 | Car → Oracle | 777 USDC.e | Log 1216 ↗ |
| 2026-06-14 22:03:31 | Car → Oracle | 4,444 USDC.e | Log 397 ↗ |
| 2026-04-22 17:55:48 | Car → Oracle | 1,555 USDC.e | Log 553 ↗ |
| 2026-03-02 00:52:41 | Car → Oracle | 2,222 USDC.e | Log 408 ↗ |
| 2026-03-01 19:21:43 | Car → Oracle | 755 USDC.e | Log 1414 ↗ |
| 2026-02-28 22:09:21 | Car → Oracle | 420 USDC.e | Log 1809 ↗ |
| 2026-02-06 20:36:09 | Car → Oracle | 2,222 USDC.e | Log 1407 ↗ |
| 2025-09-15 23:14:52 | Car → Oracle | 5,555 USDC.e | Log 175 ↗ |
| 2025-04-05 18:12:41 | Car → Oracle | 750 USDC.e | Log 199 ↗ |
| 2025-04-03 00:48:18 | Car → Oracle | 650 USDC.e | Log 348 ↗ |
| 2025-03-30 12:08:29 | Oracle → Car | 1,111 USDC.e | Log 0 ↗ |
| 2025-03-24 22:10:00 | Car → Oracle | 1,111 USDC.e | Log 270 ↗ |
| 2025-03-17 10:01:39 | Oracle → Car | 1,111 USDC.e | Log 0 ↗ |
| 2025-03-03 22:14:37 | Car → Oracle | 222 USDC.e | Log 351 ↗ |
| 2025-03-03 22:13:53 | Car → Oracle | 444 USDC.e | Log 283 ↗ |
| 2025-02-26 22:58:07 | Oracle → Car | 1,900 USDC.e | Log 0 ↗ |
| 2025-02-03 15:18:46 | Car → Oracle | 750 USDC.e | Log 370 ↗ |
| 2025-02-01 00:28:29 | Car → Oracle | 700 USDC.e | Log 331 ↗ |
| 2025-01-29 21:31:26 | Oracle → Car | 2,222 USDC.e | Log 8 ↗ |
| 2025-01-25 01:00:42 | Car → Oracle | 750 USDC.e | Log 630 ↗ |
| 2025-01-22 05:50:52 | Car → Oracle | 750 USDC.e | Log 495 ↗ |
| 2025-01-20 05:32:37 | Car → Oracle | 750 USDC.e | Log 319 ↗ |
| 2024-12-29 21:25:23 | Car → Oracle | 750 USDC.e | Log 559 ↗ |
| 2024-12-02 12:58:42 | Oracle → Car | 765 USDC.e | Log 6 ↗ |
| 2024-11-28 20:46:44 | Car → Oracle | 750 USDC.e | Log 38 ↗ |
| 2024-11-22 20:24:05 | Oracle → Car | 1,500 USDC.e | Log 3 ↗ |
| 2024-11-06 16:41:58 | Car → Oracle | 750 USDC.e | Log 56 ↗ |
| 2024-11-06 05:29:31 | Oracle → Car | 755 USDC.e | Log 385 ↗ |
| 2024-11-03 17:17:57 | Car → Oracle | 750 USDC.e | Log 74 ↗ |
| 2024-10-31 14:18:16 | Car → Oracle | 750 USDC.e | Log 276 ↗ |
| 2024-10-28 15:47:52 | Oracle → Car | 1,250 USDC.e | Log 0 ↗ |
| 2024-10-18 16:10:11 | Car → Oracle | 750 USDC.e | Log 32 ↗ |
| 2024-10-17 19:56:16 | Car → Oracle | 750 USDC.e | Log 54 ↗ |
| 2024-10-14 20:52:25 | Oracle → Car | 1,015 USDC.e | Log 0 ↗ |
| 2024-09-17 14:04:50 | Car → Oracle | 750 USDC.e | Log 23 ↗ |
| 2024-09-15 22:11:01 | Oracle → Car | 750 USDC.e | Log 4 ↗ |
| 2024-09-14 23:05:26 | Oracle → Car | 1,000 USDC.e | Log 0 ↗ |
| 2024-09-12 22:30:49 | Car → Oracle | 750 USDC.e | Log 0 ↗ |
| 2024-09-11 02:32:43 | Car → Oracle | 749 USDC.e | Log 117 ↗ |
| 2024-09-11 02:17:02 | Car → Oracle | 1 USDC.e | Log 69 ↗ |
| 2024-09-06 17:23:05 | Oracle → Car | 1,000 USDC.e | Log 0 ↗ |
| 2024-09-01 20:05:48 | Oracle → Car | 750 USDC.e | Log 0 ↗ |
| 2024-09-01 15:47:35 | Car → Oracle | 500 USDC.e | Log 312 ↗ |
| 2024-08-29 19:45:14 | Oracle → Car | 1,265 USDC.e | Log 8 ↗ |
| 2024-08-25 14:26:43 | Car → Oracle | 500 USDC.e | Log 42 ↗ |
| 2024-07-23 18:13:59 | Car → Oracle | 750 USDC.e | Log 5 ↗ |
| 2024-07-23 00:55:59 | Oracle → Car | 755 USDC.e | Log 10 ↗ |
| 2024-07-21 20:48:38 | Car → Oracle | 750 USDC.e | Log 85 ↗ |
| 2024-07-20 22:05:58 | Oracle → Car | 750 USDC.e | Log 1 ↗ |
| 2024-07-20 21:49:33 | Car → Oracle | 750 USDC.e | Log 28 ↗ |
| 2024-07-20 16:31:32 | Oracle → Car | 761 USDC.e | Log 0 ↗ |
| 2024-07-18 03:32:17 | Car → Oracle | 751 USDC.e | Log 25 ↗ |
| 2024-07-18 00:38:43 | Oracle → Car | 2,000 USDC.e | Log 10 ↗ |
| 2024-07-18 00:26:39 | Oracle → Car | 138 USDC.e | Log 0 ↗ |
| 2024-07-15 23:02:09 | Car → Oracle | 750 USDC.e | Log 31 ↗ |
| 2024-07-12 11:29:12 | Car → Oracle | 888 USDC.e | Log 56 ↗ |
02 / Timing, down to the second
The book moves.
The proposal follows.
Buy receipts identify Car’s wallet, outcome token, quantity and exchange. Proposal receipts identify the submitting wallet and proposed answer. Block timestamps put the events in order.
02–03 April 2025 / repeat submissions
Buy. Propose. Fund. Propose again.
Car buys 1,500 Yes
The trading Safe spends 1,335 USDC.e on the sanctions market.
Transaction ↗The funded wallet proposes Yes
176 seconds later. Car holds 2,000.004659 Yes and no No shares at the preceding block.
Transaction ↗Car sends the oracle wallet 650 USDC.e
A direct transfer from the same trading Safe.
Transaction ↗The wallet proposes Yes again
94 seconds after the funding. Car now holds 4,178.124659 Yes. Both requests eventually settle as Too Early.
Transaction ↗
03 / Every rejected proposal
Eleven premature answers.
Eleven aligned positions.
Historical contract reads measure Car’s Yes and No shares at the end of the block immediately before each proposal. In every Too Early case, the proposed answer favors his larger holding. The twelfth rejection is different: the Oman proposal says Yes, while Car holds No.
| Proposal UTC | Market | Proposed | Car Yes shares | Car No shares | Oracle verdict | Market on Sep 16 | Receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-26 23:06 | Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024? | Yes | 36,111.315343 | 0.005427 | Too Early | Yes | Proposal ↗ |
| 2025-04-02 14:13 | Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before June? | Yes | 2,000.004659 | 0 | Too Early | No | Proposal ↗ |
| 2025-04-03 00:49 | Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before June? | Yes | 4,178.124659 | 0 | Too Early | No | Proposal ↗ |
| 2026-03-04 03:32 | Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 10,268.446938 | 0.000093 | Too Early | Yes | Proposal ↗ |
| 2026-04-04 12:39 | Will Iran strike Oman again in March? | Yes | 0 | 1,047.17 | No | No | Proposal ↗ |
| 2026-04-23 02:15 | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 44,785.66421 | 0.007656 | Too Early | No | Proposal ↗ |
| 2026-06-19 00:02 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? | Yes | 5,000 | 0 | Too Early | No | Proposal ↗ |
| 2026-06-19 00:03 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | Yes | 1,000 | 0 | Too Early | Open | Proposal ↗ |
| 2026-06-19 18:14 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? | Yes | 5,000 | 0 | Too Early | No | Proposal ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 17:44 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? | Yes | 2,577.67725 | 0.012546 | Too Early | No | Proposal ↗ |
| 2026-08-12 22:12 | Will Kai and Speed have between 30 and 49 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon? | Yes | 5,236.28 | 0.003145 | Too Early | Yes | Proposal ↗ |
| 2026-08-12 22:23 | Will Kai and Speed have between 50 and 69 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon? | No | 0 | 3,333 | Too Early | No | Proposal ↗ |
Share counts retain all six decimal places where needed. Repeated proposals count separately. “Too Early” is the oracle’s signed minimum-integer response; the later market result is shown in its own column.
23 April / ceasefire extension
44,785.66421 Yes at the preceding block.
The direct balance read replaces the old article’s 39,343-share trade-log estimate. Car also holds 0.007656 No. The funded wallet proposes Yes; the request settles as Too Early. The market later ends No.
Replay the balance reads ↓04 April / Oman strike
The case that runs the other way.
The wallet proposes Yes, and the oracle returns No. Car holds 0 Yes and 1,047.17 No. This proposal opposes his larger holding. It belongs in the same twelve-case record.
Open the Oman proposal ↗05 / The complete reviewed record
121 proposals.
Every answer included.
109 settled as proposed: 78 unchallenged and 31 after a dispute. Twelve settled with a different value. The six most recent proposals, from August 20 through September 3, all settled as proposed. Six failed proposal transactions are excluded from the successful-submission count.
121 proposals
| Submitted UTC | Question | Proposed | Settled answer | Challenge | Permission | Receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 16:09:43 | Will JL Find a Team Before September? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-09-01 22:31:03 | Apple Maps renames Lake Ontario to Lake America by September 4? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-09-01 22:30:43 | Apple Maps renames Lake Ontario to Lake America by September 3? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-09-01 22:30:22 | Apple Maps renames Lake Ontario to Lake America by September 2? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-09-01 22:30:04 | Apple Maps renames Lake Ontario to Lake America by September 1? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-08-20 15:36:24 | Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by August 15, 2026? | Yes | Yes | Disputed | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-08-13 15:11:30 | Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? | No | No | Unchallenged | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-08-12 22:23:24 | Will Kai and Speed have between 50 and 69 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon? | No | Too Early | Disputed | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-08-12 22:12:52 | Will Kai and Speed have between 30 and 49 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon? | Yes | Too Early | Disputed | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-08-12 16:02:49 | US x Iran Effective Ceasfire by July 31? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-08-01 13:35:56 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026? | Yes | Yes | Disputed | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-07-25 01:31:10 | Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 31, 2026? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-07-17 21:10:34 | Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-07-15 21:26:23 | Los Angeles Sparks vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 182.5 | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-07-09 02:05:02 | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 7? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-07-08 22:19:52 | Will Donald Trump visit the United Kingdom in 2026? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 17:44:41 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? | Yes | Too Early | Disputed | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-06-27 20:09:41 | Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? | Yes | Yes | Disputed | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-06-19 18:14:29 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? | Yes | Too Early | Disputed | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-06-19 00:03:37 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | Yes | Too Early | Disputed | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-06-19 00:02:59 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? | Yes | Too Early | Disputed | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-06-17 22:00:17 | Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-06-16 22:30:04 | Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-06-15 15:47:06 | Will Ali Larijani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | No | No | Unchallenged | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-06-15 00:44:55 | US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-06-15 00:44:18 | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-06-14 22:28:46 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? | Yes | Yes | Disputed | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-06-14 22:27:24 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? | Yes | Yes | Disputed | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-06-14 22:21:54 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | Yes | Disputed | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-06-14 22:21:15 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Yes | Yes | Disputed | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-06-14 22:18:06 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Yes | Yes | Disputed | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-06-14 22:06:04 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Yes | Yes | Disputed | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-06-14 22:05:39 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-06-14 21:52:27 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-06-14 21:48:55 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-06-14 21:47:46 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-06-14 21:45:39 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-06-14 21:42:57 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-06-14 21:32:22 | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-06-07 21:02:09 | Iran closes its airspace by June 15? | Yes | Yes | Disputed | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-06-07 21:01:42 | Iran closes its airspace by July 15? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-06-07 20:58:10 | Iran closes its airspace by July 31? | Yes | Yes | Disputed | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-05-07 19:19:23 | Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in May? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-05-01 19:11:40 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? | Yes | Yes | Disputed | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-04-29 15:04:56 | Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April? | Yes | Yes | Disputed | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-04-23 02:15:18 | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | Yes | Too Early | Disputed | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-04-22 04:00:04 | Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 21, 2026? | No | No | Disputed | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-04-21 16:00:22 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | Yes | Disputed | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-04-20 21:14:34 | Will Lori Chavez-DeRemer leave the Trump administration before 2027? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-04-08 23:43:17 | Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-04-08 16:30:27 | Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 8, 2026? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-04-04 16:07:11 | Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 4, 2026? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-04-04 12:39:35 | Will Iran strike Oman again in March? | Yes | No | Disputed | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-03-21 19:39:07 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Yes | Yes | Disputed | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-03-16 19:50:13 | Greg Bovino fired/resigns by March 31? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-03-09 22:27:15 | Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in March? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-03-04 16:34:59 | Will Trump nominate Individual F as the next Fed chair? | No | No | Unchallenged | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-03-04 03:32:11 | Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | Too Early | Disputed | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-03-03 02:52:09 | Trump invokes War Powers against Iran by March 31, 2026? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-03-02 00:53:25 | Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 7? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-03-01 19:25:49 | Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | 50/50 | 50/50 | Disputed | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-02-28 21:39:59 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | Yes | Disputed | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-02-25 18:18:34 | State of the Union Bingo - Card 2 | No | No | Unchallenged | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-02-21 18:36:38 | Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by December 31? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-02-10 05:00:03 | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | No | No | Disputed | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-02-06 20:47:33 | Will the next official US-Iran meeting be in Iran? | No | No | Unchallenged | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-02-06 20:34:45 | Will the next official US-Iran meeting be in Oman? | Yes | Yes | Disputed | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-02-06 19:49:27 | Will Witkoff meet with Iranian officials by February 28? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-02-06 02:42:39 | Trump announces new drug boat strike by February 14, 2026? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | On enabled list | Receipt ↗ |
| 2026-01-29 22:01:08 | Will the US strike Somalia next? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
| 2025-04-03 00:49:52 | Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before June? | Yes | Too Early | Disputed | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
| 2025-04-02 14:13:34 | Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before June? | Yes | Too Early | Disputed | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
| 2025-03-31 22:00:52 | Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on March 31? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
| 2025-03-25 17:28:08 | Energy infrastructure ceasefire in Ukraine in March? | Yes | Yes | Disputed | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
| 2025-03-25 00:10:00 | Will Ukraine agree to payback U.S. aid before July? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
| 2025-03-24 22:30:40 | Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on March 24? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
| 2025-03-24 14:39:55 | Will Trump say "tariff" by March 28? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
| 2025-03-15 17:32:51 | U.S. Government funding lapse on March 15? | Yes | Yes | Disputed | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
| 2025-03-09 01:06:18 | Will Trump reduce tariffs on Mexico or Canada by Wednesday? | No | No | Unchallenged | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
| 2025-03-08 20:10:09 | Is there less than 10000000 Troy Ounces of Gold in Fort Knox? | No | No | Unchallenged | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
| 2025-03-07 21:26:59 | Will Brad Garlinghouse attend the March 7 Crypto Summit? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
| 2025-02-22 21:54:26 | Will Trump meet with Javier Milei in his first 100 days? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
| 2025-02-18 21:57:50 | Will Trump issue an executive order on February 18? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
| 2025-02-11 23:07:05 | Will Trump issue an executive order on February 11? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
| 2025-02-07 22:31:39 | Will Trump issue an executive order on February 7? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
| 2025-02-06 22:13:05 | Will Trump issue an executive order on February 6? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
| 2025-02-03 23:44:08 | Will Trump issue an executive order on Day 15? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
| 2025-02-03 15:21:12 | Will Türkiye recognize Syrian government by March 31? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
| 2025-02-02 01:05:58 | Will Trump issue an executive order on Day 13? | Yes | Yes | Disputed | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
| 2025-01-31 23:31:59 | Will Trump issue an executive order on Day 12? | Yes | Yes | Disputed | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
| 2025-01-29 21:30:12 | Will Trump issue an executive order on Day 10? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
| 2025-01-25 01:06:26 | Will Trump issue an executive order on Day 5? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
| 2025-01-22 05:54:26 | Will Trump sign 0 executive orders on January 21? | No | No | Unchallenged | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
| 2025-01-22 05:00:47 | Will Trump sign 0 executive orders on January 21? | No | No | Disputed | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
| 2025-01-21 14:51:20 | Trump renames Gulf of Mexico to "Gulf of America" in 2025? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
| 2025-01-21 01:42:42 | Will Trump declare a national emergency on his first day? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
| 2025-01-20 22:46:36 | Will Coinbase list $TRUMP in January? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
| 2025-01-20 18:22:08 | Will Trump mention his memecoin in inaugural address? | No | No | Unchallenged | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
| 2025-01-06 16:10:52 | Trudeau resigns before February? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
| 2025-01-02 15:15:48 | Fact Check: Cybertruck explosion intentional? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
| 2024-12-29 21:27:25 | Will Jimmy Carter attend presidential inauguration? | No | No | Unchallenged | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
| 2024-11-26 23:06:25 | Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024? | Yes | Too Early | Disputed | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
| 2024-11-26 18:40:05 | Hawk Tuah token by Thanksgiving? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
| 2024-11-25 19:41:12 | Pump.fun ends livestreaming by Friday? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
| 2024-11-16 00:09:32 | Will Trump appoint Karoline Leavitt for White House Press Secretary? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
| 2024-11-15 14:00:38 | Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024? | Yes | Yes | Disputed | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
| 2024-11-01 23:42:59 | Young Thug released by Friday? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
| 2024-09-30 12:15:29 | Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September? | Yes | Yes | Disputed | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
| 2024-09-27 14:12:53 | Will Zelensky meet with Trump in September? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
| 2024-09-19 20:40:49 | Mark Robinson pedophile allegations? | No | No | Unchallenged | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
| 2024-09-17 14:06:36 | Will Apple remain largest company through Sep 30? | No | No | Unchallenged | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
| 2024-09-11 02:46:15 | Microphones muted during ABC debate? | Yes | Yes | Disputed | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
| 2024-09-01 15:33:07 | Ukraine hits Moscow by Sept 30? | Yes | Yes | Disputed | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
| 2024-08-28 20:10:32 | Pavel Durov released in August? | Yes | Yes | Disputed | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
| 2024-08-23 23:03:17 | RFK Jr. endorses Trump before November? | Yes | Yes | Disputed | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
| 2024-07-25 17:54:28 | Will Biden's withdrawal speech be live? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
| 2024-07-23 20:22:55 | MrBeast fires Kris in July? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
| 2024-07-23 18:17:01 | Biden COVID free by next Friday? | Yes | Yes | Unchallenged | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
| 2024-07-21 20:51:44 | Will Nancy Pelosi call on Biden to drop out? | No | No | Unchallenged | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
| 2024-07-20 04:06:13 | Biden announcement on future by tomorrow? | No | No | Unchallenged | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
| 2024-07-18 03:50:25 | Trump speaks on RNC Day 3? | No | No | Unchallenged | Legacy oracle | Receipt ↗ |
No proposals match this search.
The download also includes 20 successful dispute submissions by the funded wallet. These are counted separately from its proposals. Request state is pinned to Polygon block 93,917,716, captured September 16 at 18:00 UTC.
06 / The evidence files
The source behind
every number.
Raw receipts establish transfers and submissions. Historical contract reads establish balances, permission and request outcomes. Official market metadata maps outcome tokens to questions. The downloadable method records each join.
All 12 rejected proposals ↓Both holdings, proposal, verdict and market statusThe full oracle ledger ↓121 proposals and 20 submitted disputes36 historical balances ↓Both outcomes for 18 selected proposalsReplay the balance checks ↓Exact contract calls and raw responses56 direct transfers ↓37 sends to the oracle; 19 sends backVerified buy timings ↓Raw order fills, fees and proposal intervalsOracle proof bundle ↓Inputs, emitted events, settled requests and whitelist readsTrade and funding receipts ↓Cited logs, block hashes and timestampsReproduce the dossier ↓Selection, contract sources and corrections
What this updates in the original Car chapter
The original chapter’s seven-row reversal table mixed request dates, oracle responses and eventual market outcomes. This reconstruction identifies twelve actual proposal transactions whose settled answer differs: eleven Too Early, one No. The distinction matters: several markets eventually resolved in the proposed direction.
Historical balances replace trade-log net estimates: 44,785.66421 Yes for the April 23 ceasefire proposal and 2,577.67725 Yes for the July 3 diplomatic-meeting proposal. The closest sanctions buy verified here is 176 seconds before the April 2 proposal. The directly verified self-dispute count for this oracle address is one.
The link established here is direct two-way funding between Car’s public Safe and the proposing address. Oracle signing-key ownership, address-similarity claims and the older inferred cross-chain grouping are not established by these checks. The dated original chapter remains available as an archive.
Open the original chapter and dated update ↗